It’s been obvious, since early 2025, that they are chasing the next step change but not getting any closer to it. OpenAI is in a catastrophic financial position and it’s hard to imagine a scenario where it gets any better.
Ironically, I think only AGI could get them out of this pickle, but even they are starting to realize it’s not around the corner.
AGI might be just around the corner, or it might be indefinitely far off, but either way I don’t think “just more LLM” is going to get there, and that seems to be all the AI industry is really equipped to handle at the moment.
Ironically, getting to AGI might take a bubble pop to stop the current LLM architectures from just sucking up all the resources to let other approaches breathe a little.
More practically, I’d have expected to see more engaged robotics, but it seems all the money is being spent on pure online AI approaches.
Seriously. Neural networks can approximate literally any function, and the lumbering giants have all decided ‘what’s the next word?’ is the only function worth pursuing.
It’d take a sliver of their current budget to try starting over like it’s 2020. Compare with benchmarks that now look quaint. Enjoy some wisdom where previously they could only guess. Buuut nope: all LLM, all the time, and big big big.
It’s been obvious, since early 2025, that they are chasing the next step change but not getting any closer to it. OpenAI is in a catastrophic financial position and it’s hard to imagine a scenario where it gets any better.
Ironically, I think only AGI could get them out of this pickle, but even they are starting to realize it’s not around the corner.
AGI might be just around the corner, or it might be indefinitely far off, but either way I don’t think “just more LLM” is going to get there, and that seems to be all the AI industry is really equipped to handle at the moment.
Ironically, getting to AGI might take a bubble pop to stop the current LLM architectures from just sucking up all the resources to let other approaches breathe a little.
More practically, I’d have expected to see more engaged robotics, but it seems all the money is being spent on pure online AI approaches.
Seriously. Neural networks can approximate literally any function, and the lumbering giants have all decided ‘what’s the next word?’ is the only function worth pursuing.
It’d take a sliver of their current budget to try starting over like it’s 2020. Compare with benchmarks that now look quaint. Enjoy some wisdom where previously they could only guess. Buuut nope: all LLM, all the time, and big big big.